i’ve been messin around with some custom filter pipelines lately. basically i wanted to see where the real “exhaustion points” are in the fulton county residential universe. everyone keeps talking about a housing shortage but the data shows something else if you look at the “LTO” (long-tenure owner) signals.
i narrowed down the 350,000+ parcels to a working universe of about 72k investment properties. and yeah… the numbers are kinda weird.
The “Alpha” or whatever you want to call it:
- The 20-Year Wall: I found 41,959 owners with an avg hold period of 19.7 years. That is basically an entire generation of equity just sitting there.
- The Absentee Factor: 96.9% of these are absentee. about 6% are out-of-state. these people have literally zero emotional attachment to the dirt at this point. they probably haven’t even seen the houses since the pre-covid spike.
- The “Gap”: there are about 7,567 properties where the appraisal is so far behind the market appreciation that the assets are just objectively under-managed.
the south fulton logistics cluster is up like 114% in 3 years. Meanwhile, the North Fulton corridor has the highest density of these “Tier 1” owners who have held for 20+ years and are probably tired of dealing with tenants.
anyway. i’m just a data guy. but it feels like the market is ignoring a massive “tired landlord” wave that is about to hit. or maybe i’m just overthinking the etl results.
Has anyone actually closed anything in South Fulton lately? the appreciation numbers look like a glitch but i’ve triple checked the math.
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