Spent A Few Months Trying To Beat Polymarket’s BTC Up/down Candle Markets. They’re Efficient At Basically Every Static Entry — Here’s What The Data Showed.

TL;DR: short-horizon crypto direction on Polymarket is NOT where the edge is. I tested entries at candle birth, mid-candle, T-180s, T-60s, and the “deathbed” — the book charges ~fair value (incl. fees) at every static point. The deathbed-favorite edge people mention is basically closed (priced to ~$1.00).

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Where edge actually showed up: execution/structure (nested-market consistency, late-window favorites with real leads), favourite-longshot bias (longshots overpriced, favorites underpriced), and LP rewards — not price prediction.

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Happy to share the fair-value model I used (driftless P(up) from realized move + time + vol) in the comments. Anyone found the same?