Dataset Referenced: https://github.com/bentodd1/FanDuelVsPinnacle/blob/master/line_comparison.csv
Background: While building smartbet.name, I noticed many betting sites claim you can do EV betting by following Pinnacle’s lines. I decided to test this by comparing Pinnacle and FanDuel NFL lines, with surprising results.
Key Findings:
Dataset: 1,039 NFL games (2020-2023) Lines from both books captured week before games FanDuel showed better predictive accuracy
Results Breakdown:
Line Accuracy: Identical predictions: 457 games (43.98%) FanDuel more accurate: 302 games (29.07%) Pinnacle more accurate: 280 games (26.95%) Average Absolute Error: Pinnacle: 9.51 points FanDuel: 9.05 points Average Hours Before Game: Pinnacle: 88.1 hours FanDuel: 58.0 hours
Dataset Access:
Full Dataset: line_comparison.csv Analysis Code: Jupyter Notebook
Methodology: The exact analysis can be seen in the Jupyter notebook. I created the database while using smartbet.name .
These findings challenge conventional wisdom about Pinnacle’s supposed edge in market efficiency.
submitted by /u/bentodd1
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