{"id":32196,"date":"2025-01-10T00:29:34","date_gmt":"2025-01-09T23:29:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.graviton.at\/letterswaplibrary\/dataset-testing-the-pinnacle-ev-betting-theory-fanduel-vs-pinnacle-nfl-line-accuracy-2020-2023\/"},"modified":"2025-01-10T00:29:34","modified_gmt":"2025-01-09T23:29:34","slug":"dataset-testing-the-pinnacle-ev-betting-theory-fanduel-vs-pinnacle-nfl-line-accuracy-2020-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.graviton.at\/letterswaplibrary\/dataset-testing-the-pinnacle-ev-betting-theory-fanduel-vs-pinnacle-nfl-line-accuracy-2020-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"[Dataset] Testing The &#8220;Pinnacle EV Betting&#8221; Theory: FanDuel Vs Pinnacle NFL Line Accuracy (2020-2023)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!-- SC_OFF --><\/p>\n<div class=\"md\">\n<p>Dataset Referenced: <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/bentodd1\/FanDuelVsPinnacle\/blob\/master\/line_comparison.csv\">https:\/\/github.com\/bentodd1\/FanDuelVsPinnacle\/blob\/master\/line_comparison.csv<\/a> <\/p>\n<p><strong>Background:<\/strong> While building <a href=\"http:\/\/smartbet.name\/\">smartbet.name<\/a>, I noticed many betting sites claim you can do EV betting by following Pinnacle&#8217;s lines. I decided to test this by comparing Pinnacle and FanDuel NFL lines, with surprising results.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key Findings:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>  Dataset: 1,039 NFL games (2020-2023) Lines from both books captured week before games FanDuel showed better predictive accuracy  <\/p>\n<p><strong>Results Breakdown:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>  Line Accuracy:  Identical predictions: 457 games (43.98%) FanDuel more accurate: 302 games (29.07%) Pinnacle more accurate: 280 games (26.95%)  Average Absolute Error:  Pinnacle: 9.51 points FanDuel: 9.05 points  Average Hours Before Game:  Pinnacle: 88.1 hours FanDuel: 58.0 hours   <\/p>\n<p><strong>Dataset Access:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>  Full Dataset: <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/bentodd1\/FanDuelVsPinnacle\/blob\/master\/line_comparison.csv\">line_comparison.csv<\/a> Analysis Code: <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/bentodd1\/FanDuelVsPinnacle\/blob\/master\/FanDuelVsPinnacle.ipynb\">Jupyter Notebook<\/a>  <\/p>\n<p><strong>Methodology:<\/strong> The exact analysis can be seen in the Jupyter notebook. I created the database while using <a href=\"http:\/\/smartbet.name\/\">smartbet.name<\/a> . <\/p>\n<p>These findings challenge conventional wisdom about Pinnacle&#8217;s supposed edge in market efficiency.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- SC_ON -->   submitted by   <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/user\/bentodd1\"> \/u\/bentodd1 <\/a> <br \/> <span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/datasets\/comments\/1hxpgas\/dataset_testing_the_pinnacle_ev_betting_theory\/\">[link]<\/a><\/span>   <span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/datasets\/comments\/1hxpgas\/dataset_testing_the_pinnacle_ev_betting_theory\/\">[comments]<\/a><\/span><\/p><div class='watch-action'><div class='watch-position align-right'><div class='action-like'><a class='lbg-style1 like-32196 jlk' href='javascript:void(0)' data-task='like' data-post_id='32196' data-nonce='614a020375' rel='nofollow'><img class='wti-pixel' src='https:\/\/www.graviton.at\/letterswaplibrary\/wp-content\/plugins\/wti-like-post\/images\/pixel.gif' title='Like' \/><span class='lc-32196 lc'>0<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div> <div class='status-32196 status align-right'><\/div><\/div><div class='wti-clear'><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dataset Referenced: https:\/\/github.com\/bentodd1\/FanDuelVsPinnacle\/blob\/master\/line_comparison.csv Background: While building smartbet.name, I noticed many betting sites claim you can do EV&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[85],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32196","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-datatards","wpcat-85-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.graviton.at\/letterswaplibrary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32196","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.graviton.at\/letterswaplibrary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.graviton.at\/letterswaplibrary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.graviton.at\/letterswaplibrary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32196"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.graviton.at\/letterswaplibrary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32196\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.graviton.at\/letterswaplibrary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32196"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.graviton.at\/letterswaplibrary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32196"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.graviton.at\/letterswaplibrary\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32196"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}