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The Soviet Space Program – the Next Five Years <\/p>\n
In response to the publication of “Soviet Military Power” by the DoD,
\nand Aviation Week magazine’s continuing predictions over the years, this
\nDL entry takes a dissenting position, not based on classified
\ninformation, but on a historical perspective of the Soviet space
\nprogram, and projects past performance into the future.
\n For those who have missed the above publications, their basic position
\nis that the USSR is embarked upon three major projects, each rivaling
\nour Shuttle program in scope and cost. These are: 1) A Saturn IB class
\nbooster that will used to launch a mini-shuttle, 2) A Shuttle with
\ngreater capacity than ours, and 3) A Heavy Lift booster, comparable in
\nsize to our Saturn V, that will be used to launch the a Skylab-sized
\ncore for a huge space station. All of these projects are claimed to be
\nin their final stages of development, with first launch to come within a
\nyear or two. As a final spectacular note, the DoD publication claims
\nthat a Mars mission is being contemplated by the Soviets for the year
\n1992.
\n Each of these projects pre-supposes the development of liquid hydrogen
\nengines at least the size of the Saturn J-2 engine, and possibly the
\nsize of the Space shuttle main engine. As the Soviets have yet to
\ndemonstrate the use of even a Centaur-class LH2 engine, it has not yet
\nbeen explained how the Soviets will develop this highly advanced
\ntechnology in the next year.
\n The actual Soviet practice over the years has been:
\n 1) Use of non-cryogenic fuels whenever possible.
\n 2) Use of assembly line techniques to develop economies of scale in
\nproduction of both boosters and spacecraft.
\n 3) Slow development of programs with evolutionary, not revolutionary
\nsteps, contrasted with the huge jumps that the US program has made such
\nas between Gemini and Apollo, and Apollo and the Shuttle.
\n 4) Thorough unmanned testing of systems before first launch.
\n 5) Confusing public statements to disguise their real intent, and to
\ncover their tracks in case of failure. <\/p>\n
Based on these practices, the following predictions are in order for
\nthe year 1990:
\n 1) Continued use of Salyut, but with modifications. These could be a)
\nuse of a multiple docking adaptor to allow several cargo vehicles to
\ndock simultaneously, b) regular crew rotation, with Salyut occupancy
\nnear 100%, c) use of Soyuz orbital modules left attached to Salyut to
\nincrease living space, and d) permanent attachment of Star modules to
\nincrease living space, provide more electrical power, and to provide
\nmore on-board equipment.
\n 2) Use of a small LH2 engine on either the A class booster or Proton to
\nincrease payload of cargo missions or size of Salyut.
\n 3) Development of a Dyna-soar class shuttle, coupled with development
\nof a LH2 engine to allow a vehicle of 50,000+ lbs, including engine
\nweight with the Proton booster. This is doubtful, as launch of a Star
\nmodule without the minishuttle would result in greater payload capacity.
\n 4) Use of more sophisticated EVA equipment, such as a MMU, to allow
\ncosmonauts to maneuver more freely in open space.
\n 5) Continued use of ICBMs as launch vehicles, possibly the SS-18 in the
\nnear-term. This could become the new J Class vehicle, with orbital
\ncapabilities rivaling the A class, with easier launch operations, and
\ngreater reliability. (This is not to be confused with the all-new
\nJ-Class vehicle postulated by the DoD, with a payload of 30,000+ lbs).
\nCoupled with a LH2 stage, the vehicle could be more powerful than any
\nbooster except the D class. As this vehicle has already been proven,
\nconversion to space use could be rapid, once the decision is made to do
\nso, possibly after an arms agreement with the U.S.
\n 6) Of course, longer stays in orbit, up to 365 days.
\n 7) More female cosmonauts, but an all-female crew is unlikely.
\n 8) Continued exploration of the planets through unmanned probes.
\n 9) Cosmos 2000 (at least!).
\n 10) Rumors of an impending Mars flight by the Soviets, of a heavy lift
\nvehicle, and a heavy shuttle.
\n 11) Statements by the Soviets that they plan on a Cosmograd, that
\ncolonization of the planets is a goal, and that they will build a
\nshuttle.
\nIn other words, more of the same. <\/p>\n
