THE CONSEQUENCES OF CLEAN COLD FUSION<\/p>\n
Copyright (c) 1989 by Martin L. Buchanan. Permission to
\nreproduce this entire article in free publications or
\npostings is granted.<\/p>\n
This posting predicts the economic, political, and social
\nconsequences of clean cold fusion. It predicts dates for
\nparticular consequences and gives free investment advice.<\/p>\n
This article refers to a Fleischmann-Pons fusion reactor
\nas a “Puff” reactor (Pons\/Utah\/Fleischmann\/fusion). The
\nassociated process is the Puff process.<\/p>\n
PREMISES<\/p>\n
1. The Puff process works as claimed.
\n2. The amount of ionizing radiation produced can be made
\n low enough that use in vehicles, homes, and offices
\n is practical.<\/p>\n
PREDICTION #1: RAPID DEVELOPMENT<\/p>\n
Puff experiments can and will be done by garage shop operations.
\nThe Puff process will be well-characterized in a few months.
\nExperimental Puff engines will be constructed this year. An
\nexperimental Puff vehicle will be constructed by the end of ’89.<\/p>\n
By the end of 1990 there will be working prototypes of Puff
\ncars, trucks, light aircraft, and home heating\/electrical plants.<\/p>\n
PREDICTION #2: POLITICAL OPPOSITION THAT FAILS<\/p>\n
Threatened economic interests will wage fierce battles to restrict
\nuse of Puff technology. The first U.S. battles will be in
\nfederal regulatory agencies and then the Congress:<\/p>\n
* Appeals for the federal government to restrict experimentation
\n and access to deuterium and certain metals.<\/p>\n
* Proposed federal laws that would forbid the use of Puff in
\n vehicles or homes, or that would impose such stringent radiation
\n limits that shielding makes Puff impractical.<\/p>\n
Supporting restrictions will be oil companies, electric utilities,
\nsome environmentalists, and Congress-critters from oil- and
\ncoal-producing states. Opposing restrictions will be auto
\nmanufacturers, airplane manufacturers, general business lobbies,
\nbusinesses with high energy costs, and advocates of the free
\nmarket, such as the Libertarian Party. The public will decide
\nwith a deluge of mail and phone calls supporting Puff 10:1.<\/p>\n
When the battle to forbid Puff fails in Congress, there
\nwill be these new federal legislative ideas:<\/p>\n
* Federal tax\/license fees on Puff reactors to reduce the
\n deficit and fund the new Federal Fusion Administration.<\/p>\n
* Federal taxes on Puff inputs such as deuterium, heavy water,
\n and certain metals.<\/p>\n
* Transition assistance from taxpayers for certain impacted
\n industries and workers.<\/p>\n
* Billions for cold fusion research so that we stay ahead of
\n the Japanese. There will be hundreds of grant proposals
\n from unemployed Tokamak jockeys.<\/p>\n
The battle will also move to state and local governments where
\nstate laws and local ordinances banning Puff, regulating Puff,
\nor requiring licenses will be fought. Some short-lived ordinances
\nwill be passed in places like Cambridge, Mass. or Berkeley, CA.
\nLicensing could become commonplace. However, bans or radiation
\nrestrictions beyond what health requires will eventually be
\nrepealed.<\/p>\n
PREDICTION #3: F\/P PATENT GRANTED AND UPHELD<\/p>\n
Fleischmann and Pons will be granted a broad patent covering
\nall use of cold fusion in a metal lattice to generate energy.
\nThe University of Utah and probably the University of
\nSouthampton will share in the largess.<\/p>\n
The patent-holders will license the patent on very generous
\nterms, seeking a one-time payment for each Puff built in
\nproportion to its power output. For example, a $.001\/W capacity
\n(tenth of a cent per Watt = $1.00 per Kilowatt capacity) license
\nfee could generate a revenue stream of billions of dollars per
\nyear within a few years.<\/p>\n
The universities, the inventors, and the inventors’ heirs will
\nbe among the richest institutions and persons in the world
\nas we enter the 21st century.<\/p>\n
PREDICTION #4: SCHEDULE<\/p>\n
1989 Process characterized.<\/p>\n
Experimental Puff engine and vehicle.<\/p>\n
1990 Forecasters dub the new decade “The Fusing Nineties.”<\/p>\n
Working prototypes of Puff cars, trucks, light aircraft,
\n home heating plants, and home electrical plants.<\/p>\n
1991 Auto companies introduce Puff models. Puff vehicle
\n prices are initially high but drop rapidly.<\/p>\n
Puff hot water heater on the market.<\/p>\n
1992 Portable computer appears powered by Puff and
\n thermocouple.<\/p>\n
Puff home electrical power system on the market.<\/p>\n
1993 Light aircraft manufacturers introduce Puff models.<\/p>\n
First large Puff ship puts to sea.<\/p>\n
1994 First Puff central power station with more than
\n 100M Watts capacity.<\/p>\n
First Boeing Puff 797F (“F” for fusion) enters
\n commercial service.<\/p>\n
1995 Puff-powered ion-electric rocket deployed in
\n orbit (for orbital transfers, not surface to orbit).<\/p>\n
PREDICTION #5: INVESTMENTS<\/p>\n
These investments will benefit:<\/p>\n
Companies involved in extracting heavy water or in building
\n new heavy water plants.<\/p>\n
Mining companies extracting the metals used, such as
\n Palladium.<\/p>\n
Vehicle manufacturers including auto-makers, airplane-makers,
\n ship-builders, truck-builders, and locomotive-builders.<\/p>\n
Companies that build electric generating plants; they have
\n the expertise to build Puff-based plants.<\/p>\n
Companies that can manufacture cheap and very sensitive
\n radiation detectors.<\/p>\n
Companies that can build cheap Puff-based desalination plants.<\/p>\n
Energy-intensive industries, such as aluminum
\n companies<\/p>\n
Real estate and retail businesses around the University of
\n Utah and possibly the University of Southampton.<\/p>\n
These investments will suffer in the long run:<\/p>\n
Fossil fuel (oil and coal) extracting, refining,
\n distributing, and retailing.<\/p>\n
The preexisting nuclear energy industry (based on fission).<\/p>\n
Companies manufacturing solar-electric, hydro-electric,
\n and wind-electric equipment.<\/p>\n
Parts manufacturers and anything related to internal
\n combustion engines. This includes tuneup shops,
\n vehicle repair shops, and so on.<\/p>\n
Electric utilities and natural gas utilities.
\n Electric utilities won’t disappear but will be under
\n price pressure due to home or business direct generation
\n of power from their own Puff plants.<\/p>\n
PREDICTION #6: GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES<\/p>\n
Economies based on fossil-fuel extraction will decline in
\nrelative wealth (though their absolute wealth may be greater
\nin a more abundant world) and in relative power: Saudi
\nArabia, Iran, Iraq, the Persian Gulf states, Brunei, Mexico,
\nVenezuela, Texas, Louisiana, Alaska, West Virginia. Those
\neconomies with large financial reserves and small populations,
\nsuch as Saudi Arabia, will do much better than those with
\nlarge populations and no financial reserves, such as Mexico.
\n(Note that the list of affected areas does not pretend to be
\ncomplete.) A diverse economy such as Texas will handle
\nthe transition much better than a one-product economy.<\/p>\n
Japan and the U.S. will be stronger, eventually freed from
\nany dependence on imported fossil fuels (total dependence in
\nJapan’s case), and with market-oriented cultures that will
\nquickly take advantage of these new developments. The same
\nwill be true of Korea and Taiwan.<\/p>\n
The growing economic pie\/increased abundance made possible
\nby Puff technology will aid the process of perestroika\/glasnost\/
\nrestructuring in the communist nations, from the Soviet Union
\nto Eastern Europe to China.<\/p>\n
PREDICTION #7: MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES<\/p>\n
Puff will fuel an economic boom as the world replaces a large
\npart of its capital stock. Of course some investments and
\nareas will fare poorly in the transition.<\/p>\n
PREDICTION #8: POLITICAL AND CULTURAL CONSEQUENCES<\/p>\n
Puff will result in:<\/p>\n
* More positive attitudes towards science and technology<\/p>\n
* More young people interested in science and technology<\/p>\n
* More positive attitudes towards markets, freedom, and
\n classical liberal\/libertarian ideas<\/p>\n
* More openness to entrepreneurs, crackpots, and others
\n with new ideas<\/p>\n
* More skepticism about the value of government-funded
\n science<\/p>\n
* Less “zero-sum” thinking = less trade protectionism
\n and less anti-immigration sentiment<\/p>\n
PREDICTION #9: CONTINUED INNOVATION<\/p>\n
Puff will lead us to a new understanding of nuclear processes.
\nThis new understanding and the innovative efforts of thousands
\nof engineers and scientists will overcome initial Puff
\nlimitations if physically possible. Some possible innovations
\ninclude:<\/p>\n
* Desktop deuterium factory. Someone will build a miniaturized
\n device to separate heavy water or deuterium from water.<\/p>\n
* Air-powered Puff plant. An advanced Puff plant may take water
\n vapor out of the air and extract the deuterons that it needs
\n to power itself.<\/p>\n
* Cold fusion-powered Earth to orbit rocket. The initial Puff
\n has relatively low operating temperatures, because the palladium
\n lattice must be solid. Presently unknown cold fusion techniques
\n may allow much higher power densities and operating temperatures.
\n Such a rocket could use plain water for its reaction mass if
\n a high-enough exhaust velocity is achieved.<\/p>\n
* Miniaturized Puff plants. For example, a Puff-powered artificial
\n heart.<\/p>\n
PREDICTION #10: OPENING THE HIGH FRONTIER<\/p>\n
Even without direct cold fusion surface to orbit rockets, cold
\nfusion will help open the high frontier of space in these ways:<\/p>\n
* Low power costs for laser launching or launch loops or LINAC
\n (linear-accelerator)-assisted launching or antimatter production
\n if antimatter is used for energy storage on such vehicles
\n (see Forward’s “Mirror Matter” book).<\/p>\n
* Unbounded power for ion drive ships in space.<\/p>\n
* It *may* be profitable to mine the Moon or asteroids for
\n certain metals.<\/p>\n
* With a wealthier global civilization on Earth and much lower
\n space travel costs, millions of people will be able to afford
\n space travel for pleasure.<\/p>\n
I’ll close with a final prediction: within 30 years, you will
\nbe able to buy a personal spaceship that will take you and your
\nfamily to the Moon and back. Its price will be under one
\nmillion 1989 dollars.<\/p>\n
